![]() ![]() The consortium, led by the National Observatory of Athens, developed two types of forecast modes to determine the expected proton flux time profiles for energies >10 MeV to > 300 MeV. The Advanced Solar Particle Events Casting System (ASPECS) is a tool developed under the ESA activity SEP Advanced Warning System (SAWS). Satellites, spacecraft and astronauts are less protected by Earth’s natural shields and extra caution is required when such eruptions are predicted to happen. They can cause damage to avionics, disturb communications and result in an increased absorbed radiation dose for aircrew and passengers. There remains a concern for polar flight routes where particles can penetrate the magnetosphere more easily. ![]() The Earth’s magnetic field deflects most of these particles and those that are able to penetrate are mostly absorbed in the atmosphere. The sudden increases in the particle fluxes observed near Earth can last for several days or even weeks. The solar energetic particles escape into the interplanetary space following the magnetic field embedded in the solar wind. These spectacular eruptions can accelerate particles like electrons, protons and heavier ions to high energies. Solar flares and coronal mass ejections result from sudden releases of magnetic energy built up in active regions that occur near sunspots.
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